IMD Monsoon 2026 Forecast: Below-Normal Rains and What It Means for Kharif Sowing

What the IMD Monsoon 2026 Forecast Says

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the 2026 Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall (June–September) will be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the "below normal" to "deficient" risk zone — the first such forecast in 11 years. IMD also assigned a 60% probability to a deficient monsoon season, meaning there is an 84% cumulative chance of rainfall being either below normal or deficient for the full season.

Key Numbers to Know

Term	IMD Definition	2026 Forecast
Normal monsoon	96–104% of LPA	Not expected
Below normal	90–95% of LPA	Most likely category
Deficient	Below 90% of LPA	60% probability
LPA (Long Period Average)	868.6 mm (1971–2020)	Baseline reference
Seasonal forecast	June–September 2026	90% of LPA ± 5%

IMD issued its first-stage forecast on April 13 at 92% of LPA. It was revised downward on May 29 to 90%, with the probability of a deficient season rising sharply from 35% to 60%.

How IMD Arrives at the Monsoon Forecast

IMD uses a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system that combines multiple coupled global climate models, including its own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), to produce its seasonal forecast. The models are re-run in May using updated ocean temperature and atmospheric data, which is why a second-stage revision is issued every year before June.

The three climate signals IMD tracks most closely:

• ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): The MMCFS currently indicates a 92% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season. El Niño suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall by weakening the temperature gradient that drives moist air northward from the Indian Ocean.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Currently neutral. Positive IOD conditions, which support Indian rainfall, are not expected to develop strongly enough to counter El Niño's effect.
• Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover: Slightly below-average Siberian snow cover in early 2026 may have allowed faster spring warming, creating a marginally supportive early-onset effect — but not enough to offset the larger deficit.

Rainfall in June 2026: The Driest in 12 Years

June 2026 has been the driest June in 12 years for India, a fact that directly sets the stage for delayed and compressed Kharif sowing. Cumulative rainfall across the country ran 43% below normal as of late June 2026, with the monsoon advancing later than expected across central and northern India.

Where Rainfall Was Deficient vs Normal

• Below-normal rainfall expected (June–September 2026): Most of central India, western India, peninsular India (except eastern coast), Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh
• Normal to above-normal expected: Parts of northeast India, northwest India, eastern peninsular India (Andhra Pradesh, Odisha coast), and isolated pockets of east India
• 315 districts flagged at risk: The Union Agriculture Ministry identified 315 districts — across Maharashtra, MP, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, UP, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha — as likely to receive below-normal rainfall
• 111 districts classified as "most vulnerable": These are districts where less than 25% of farmland has any irrigation coverage, leaving farmers entirely dependent on monsoon rains

July 2026 Outlook: The Critical Month

July is the most important month in the Kharif season because it covers the peak sowing window for rice, soybean, cotton, and most pulses. IMD forecast July 2026 rainfall at below 94% of the monthly LPA of 280.4 mm, which means the peak sowing period will see continued rainfall stress.

What this means for farmers:

• Soil moisture deficit will persist into the critical root-establishment phase for crops sown in June
• Irrigation demand in the evening hours has already spiked, putting pressure on power supply
• Regions dependent on tank and reservoir irrigation will begin facing water stress if July rain does not improve
• IMD has indicated that conditions are favourable for monsoon advance into Gujarat, remaining MP, Haryana, Punjab, and parts of Rajasthan in early July — but actual rainfall totals may still remain subdued

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has stressed that "the distribution of rainfall is more important than the quantity" over the coming weeks, a statement that agricultural analysts are treating as a signal that localised recovery rains could reduce, but not eliminate, the season-level deficit.

Impact on Kharif Sowing: What the Data Shows

Kharif sowing in 2026 is running significantly behind schedule, a direct consequence of the weak June rainfall. As of June 25, total Kharif crop area sown stood at 18.27 million hectares — down 23% from the 23.6 million hectares recorded during the same period in 2025.

Crop-Wise Sowing Risk

• Rice (Paddy): Most affected in rain-fed areas; high water demand makes early soil moisture critical
• Soybean: Tracking below last year's pace; central India (MP, Maharashtra) — the crop's primary growing belt — is among the most rainfall-deficient zones
• Cotton: Deep-rooted but needs at least 2–3 early rains for germination; Vidarbha and north Karnataka at risk
• Maize: Moderate risk; can recover if July rains arrive in time
• Tur (Pigeon Pea) and Urad (Black Gram): At risk from delayed sowing, but both crops are relatively drought-resilient once established
• Bajra and Jowar: Less affected by delay; sowing windows for these millets are wider and the crops tolerate dry spells

What Happens to Yield If the Deficit Persists

A 10–20% rainfall deviation from the seasonal mean can produce measurable impact on national agricultural output and food prices. If the monsoon fails to recover adequately in July and August, the expected outcomes include:

• Reduced paddy output in eastern and central India
• Higher prices for pulses and edible oils by the October–December quarter
• Increased demand on groundwater and canal irrigation, adding to costs for individual farmers

Government and IMD Advisories for Farmers

IMD and the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare have issued guidance specifically for farmers managing Kharif operations under the below-normal rainfall forecast.

Official advisory positions (as of early July 2026):

• Shift from water-intensive crops like paddy toward short-duration pulses, millets, and oilseeds in rain-fed areas
• Follow weather-based crop advisories issued by Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) at the district level — advisories are updated weekly
• Use contingency crop planning frameworks prepared by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) for drought-prone districts
• Prioritise soil moisture conservation using mulching and minimum tillage techniques before sowing
• Delay sowing by 2–3 weeks where soil moisture is inadequate rather than risk poor germination

Farmers choosing the right tractor and tillage implements for moisture-conserving land preparation — including sub-soilers and zero-till drills — can find state-wise models and verified specifications on TractorForEveryone.com, which tracks agricultural machinery suited to India's dryland and rain-fed farming conditions.

What Farmers Should Watch Over the Next 30 Days

The next 30 days (July 2026) will likely determine whether the 2026 Kharif season recovers or deepens into an agricultural stress year. Variability — not just total rainfall — will decide crop outcomes, which means a single week of well-distributed rain can shift the picture significantly.

Key signals to track:

• IMD weekly extended range forecast (updated every Wednesday, available at mausam.imd.gov.in)
• Reservoir storage levels in major irrigation dams across Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh
• Ministry of Agriculture's weekly Kharif sowing progress data (published every Friday)
• El Niño development trajectory in the equatorial Pacific — if it strengthens ahead of August, the second half of the monsoon carries a higher deficit risk

Conclusion

IMD's 2026 monsoon forecast is the most cautious in over a decade, and the data from June confirms those concerns. With Kharif sowing running 23% below last year's pace, July has become the season-defining month for Indian agriculture. Farmers, state governments, and agri-input supply chains all need to treat this as a contingency season — with tighter water management, flexible crop choices, and real-time weather tracking as non-negotiable priorities.